Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".