From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”