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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still