Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
