Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
