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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a strong approach regarding Ukraine. After issuing statements of "serious consequences" last August in case Russia's president continued obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump finally imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted Putin's capacity to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European input, Trump has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would essentially benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality undermine that same independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic land disagreement, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will please the leader. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although keeping in status the currently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its military have been failed to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open way to the capital should he eventually decide to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, the plan states: "All extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and prohibited." As if to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia promise not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we believe Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not